Oil Price Forecast: the next month
Today's read on crude oil
After situations like today's, crude oil was higher a month later in about 6 cases out of 10, where it usually rises in about 5 out of 10.
Based on 94 comparable situations in the recorded history. Horizon: the next 20 trading sessions, about one month.
- The price range crude oil ended in 8 times out of 10 over the following month
- The strength of the evidence behind today's read
- The odds of a 5% drop at some point during the month
- Machine-written trade plans with their odds, and alerts after the close when the read changes
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What moves crude oil
WTI is the US benchmark crude. Its price balances global supply decisions against demand that moves with the economy, the seasons and the dollar.
- Producer supply decisions. Output targets set by the major producing countries are the single biggest supply lever.
- Global demand. Growth in China, US driving and air travel set consumption. Recession fears hit the price fast.
- Inventories. Weekly stock changes show whether the market is tight or oversupplied right now.
- Geopolitics and shipping. Conflict in producing regions or threats to shipping chokepoints add a risk premium.
How this forecast is made
The desk compares today's situation with every comparable situation in roughly ten years of recorded daily closes, and counts how often the market was higher 20 trading sessions later. That count is pulled toward the market's own usual habit when the sample is small, so a thin sample cannot shout. When the evidence is not there, the desk says so instead of forcing a call.
Frequently asked questions
Will crude oil go up next month?
As of 18:09 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026, the ILT Oracle desk reads crude oil as leaning higher. After situations like today's, crude oil was higher a month later in about 6 cases out of 10, where it usually rises in about 5 out of 10. This is a probability, not a promise, and it is recomputed after every close.
How often is this page updated?
After every daily close. The desk pulls the new prices, recomputes every engine and rewrites this read on its own, with no human edit.
Educational and analytical content only. Not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Probabilities describe how comparable past situations resolved; they are not guarantees. Markets involve substantial risk of loss.