Every framework call is dated before the outcome, made public, and marked honestly — correct, wrong, or still open. Wrong calls stay wrong on the record. No revisions. No highlight reel. This is the difference between a track record and marketing.
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Resolved Calls
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Marked Correct
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Marked Wrong
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Hit Rate
Live from the framework ledger · outcomes never auto-marked
01 · Dated before
Each thesis carries the date it was published — before the event, with an explicit invalidation level. You can check what we said, and when.
02 · Wrong stays wrong
When a call misses, it is marked wrong and left that way. We do not quietly revise outcomes after the fact. The miss is the proof the rest is honest.
03 · Framework, not signals
This is research and discipline — regime, cycle, and positioning to inform your own decisions. Not buy-now alerts, not performance promises.
Ten years of homework, marked
The scoreboard below only knows the calls published since launch. This section is different: the same engine, replayed across every day of the recorded history under one unbreakable rule — at any given day it may only use evidence whose outcome had already resolved by that day. No future information ever reaches a probability.
Every prediction is then scored twice: against what actually happened, and against the free alternative any client always has — the base rate. That second number is the honest one. An engine that cannot beat a base rate is decoration, however sophisticated it looks.
The Probability Desk — scored, not just stated
Beyond the ledger of calls, the framework's engine emits numerical probabilities — before events, before horizons. Every emission is logged the day it is made (first-write, no repainting), resolved automatically once its horizon passes, and scored below. A desk that marks its own homework, in public.
Brier score: 0 = perfect foresight · 0.25 = coin-flip baseline · lower is better. Reliability: in a calibrated desk, the 60–70% band resolves up ≈60–70% of the time. Cone hit near 50% is the honest target — the cone is the central half of the matched sample, by construction.
The Ledger
Loading the framework ledger…
The calls are public. The reasoning is for members.
Above, you see what the framework called and how it resolved. Inside, you get the full thesis, the exact levels, the weekly intelligence, and the dated action calendar — the how behind every line of this ledger.